|
|
|
PROGRAM LIBRARY JINRLIBSIR-model - the simplest epidemic process modelAuthor: V.S.Rikhvitsky |
|
|
|
Environment: Maple We consider the simplest 3-state model after the Malthus and Verhulst models, denoted in the literature by the abbreviation SIR (S - susceptible, I - with clinical tests of an infectious disease, R - recovered), with time-dependent coefficients. The model is mapped to current statistics that are in the public domain. Unknown model parameters can be found by minimizing the discrepancy between the prediction and available statistics. Coronavirus distribution modeling programs for Russia and selected regions: Russia: Worksheet (pdf), Worksheet (mw); Moscow: Worksheet (pdf), Worksheet (mw); Moscow region: Worksheet (pdf), Worksheet (mw); St. Petersburg: Worksheet (pdf), Worksheet (mw); Tatarstan: Worksheet (pdf), Worksheet (mw). Description of models, calculations, graphs with simulation results, a list of references can be found here. The current status can also be viewed on the website at http://rqvtsk.narod.ru/Difur/SIRmodel/SIRmodel.html. References: 
|
|
|
|
|